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Hurricane Delta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-10-08 16:54:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 14:54:47 GMT
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-08 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 081454 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Delta is better organized this morning, with the center well embedded in a cold central dense overcast and a hint of a eye developing in the overcast. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 968 mb inside a 35 n mi wide eye, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 90 kt. The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track forecast is reasonably straightforward. During the next 12-24 h, Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 36 h. After landfall, the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance is very tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track has only minor tweaks from the previous one. Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12-24 h or so, and based on this Delta is expected to regain major hurricane strength. Rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, although the various rapid intensification indices do not suggest a high chance, and the first 24 h of the forecast is already above the intensity guidance. The global models forecast strong southwesterly shear developing over the hurricane during the last 12 h before landfall, and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Delta forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipate shortly after that. It should be noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a consensus of the global and hurricane regional models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall on Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Residents in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night. 3. Significant flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding are likely in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday, with additional flooding in portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.0N 92.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST 48H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-08 16:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS STRENGTHENED... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 the center of Delta was located near 24.0, -92.7 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-10-08 16:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 081453 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 16(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 14(14) 31(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 4( 4) 33(37) 14(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 4 27(31) 20(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 4( 4) 54(58) 17(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 16(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 5( 6) 57(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 18(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 55(58) 28(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) 24(24) 31(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 5( 6) 74(80) 11(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 42(42) 19(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) 21(21) 15(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 6( 7) 74(81) 9(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 40(41) 14(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 930W 34 7 88(95) 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 1 59(60) 22(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 25(25) 29(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X 4( 4) 62(66) 17(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) 32(32) 20(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 12(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 9(10) 77(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 1( 1) 59(60) 15(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 32(32) 15(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CAMERON LA 34 2 37(39) 57(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CAMERON LA 50 X 4( 4) 75(79) 4(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) CAMERON LA 64 X 1( 1) 52(53) 6(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) JASPER TX 34 X 4( 4) 55(59) 12(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 21(21) 8(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 6( 7) 59(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 1( 1) 24(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 11(13) 68(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 2( 2) 43(45) 5(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GALVESTON TX 34 3 41(44) 32(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) GALVESTON TX 50 X 6( 6) 24(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GALVESTON TX 64 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) HOUSTON TX 34 1 7( 8) 25(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 2 17(19) 19(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 5 73(78) 3(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 29(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 22(24) 52(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 22(25) 10(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 13(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 5 26(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 270N 960W 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 6 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 16
2020-10-08 16:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 081453 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS STRENGTHENED... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 92.7W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north- northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area Friday night. RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding. As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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