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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 4
2020-10-05 16:52:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051452 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DELTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 78.6W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning was also been issued for the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane on Tuesday before it nears western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Delta Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-10-05 16:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 051451 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 78.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Delta Graphics
2020-10-05 13:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 11:43:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 11:08:04 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-05 13:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Delta was located near 16.4, -78.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 3A
2020-10-05 13:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 78.4W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this system. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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