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Tropical Storm EARL Graphics
2016-08-03 10:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 08:52:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 08:49:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-08-03 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030849 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016 Microwave imagery since 01Z indicates that Earl has formed a mid-level eye, and ASCAT data near 02Z and 03Z suggests that the circulation center has reformed to the south of the previous forecast track underneath the eye feature. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial intensity. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Earl. The latest satellite imagery suggests that the track excursion caused by the reformation is over, and that Earl is resuming a westward motion of 280/12. A large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving near the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24 hours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of Campeche thereafter. The new forecast track is similar to, but south of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Earl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind shear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until landfall. This combination should allow continued strengthening, and the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly from the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models. Weakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over southeastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less time over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new intensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous forecast. A hurricane watch or warning could be required for the Bay Islands of Honduras later today due to the new forecast track being closer to the islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 16.5N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 17.0N 87.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 18.1N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-08-03 10:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 030849 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 22(29) 4(33) X(33) X(33) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BELIZE CITY 34 4 65(69) 9(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BELIZE CITY 50 X 20(20) 12(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BELIZE CITY 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUANAJA 34 67 23(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GUANAJA 50 26 32(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GUANAJA 64 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-08-03 10:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030848 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... *PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. * NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH OR HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 83.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.0N 87.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 83.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-03 10:49:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL RESUMES A WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS AND BELIZE... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 3 the center of EARL was located near 16.1, -83.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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