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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-08-03 04:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030256 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Earl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had fallen to 996 mb or even lower. Therefore the intensity was increased to 50 kt. Some higher surface wind speeds were reported from the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have been rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better organized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite images. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected track, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls for Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall. This is in close agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above the model consensus. Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes landfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3 days is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay of Campeche. Based on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is estimated to be 280/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory package. A large and nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical cyclone from moving significantly northward. The official forecast track is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former model's track to the north of the latter one. This is fairly similar to the previous NHC forecast. The new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a hurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.7N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 17.8N 89.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 19.0N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 19.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm EARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-08-03 04:56:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 030255 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 6(31) 1(32) X(32) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MERIDA MX 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BELIZE CITY 34 1 49(50) 27(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BELIZE CITY 50 X 12(12) 23(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) BELIZE CITY 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUANAJA 34 14 61(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GUANAJA 50 1 37(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GUANAJA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm EARL (AT5/AL052016)
2016-08-03 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 the center of EARL was located near 16.4, -83.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm EARL Public Advisory Number 3
2016-08-03 04:55:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030255 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...EARL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Belize City southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning north of Belize City to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... *Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands of Honduras. * North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then be very near the Belize coast early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Earl is likely to become a hurricane before it makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of Honduras by late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico Wednesday night or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm EARL Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-08-03 04:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030255 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA... MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... *PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. * NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 83.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 83.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 82.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 84.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 87.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N 95.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 83.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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