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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39

2021-10-02 10:43:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 211 FONT13 KNHC 020842 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)

2021-10-02 10:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SAM NOW MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Sam was located near 32.8, -60.5 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 39

2021-10-02 10:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 158 WTNT33 KNHC 020842 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...SAM NOW MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 60.5W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with an increase in forward speed forecast through Monday. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through today or tonight. Sam is likely to become a hurricane-force post-tropical low by Monday night or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on Bermuda this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 39

2021-10-02 10:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 117 WTNT23 KNHC 020842 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 60.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 36.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.4N 54.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 40.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 55SE 45SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 44.4N 44.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 240SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 48.9N 40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 360SW 270NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 53.4N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 58.7N 26.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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