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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49
2021-10-04 22:31:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 042030 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-10-04 22:30:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... As of 9:00 PM GMT Mon Oct 4 the center of Sam was located near 45.1, -42.5 with movement NE at 36 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 49
2021-10-04 22:30:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042030 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 900 PM GMT Mon Oct 04 2021 ...SAM RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.1N 42.5W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM E OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 45.1 North, longitude 42.5 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h). This general motion should continue tonight. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast to begin by late Tuesday, and a northeastward motion is expected Wednesday and Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland through early Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 48
2021-10-04 16:44:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 041443 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Sam remains a formidable high-latitude hurricane this morning. An earlier 1102 UTC GMI microwave overpass continued to depict concentric eyewalls with a fairly well-defined inner-eye that was open over the southwestern quadrant. Although there has been a generally warming of the cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery, the eye remains apparent and the system is still fairly symmetric. A blend of the subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from both SAB and TAFB yield an intensity of 85 kt, which is used as the initial intensity for this advisory. Now that Sam has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream it will be moving over progressively colder waters and into much higher vertical wind shear conditions by this evening, which should cause some gradual weakening. However, the interaction of the cyclone with a strong upper-level trough is likely to lead to the rapid transition of Sam into a powerful extratropical cyclone later this evening. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds until late Tuesday. Gradual weakening should occur after that time as the baroclinic forcing decreases, and the system is forecast to spin down slowly over the north Atlantic later this week. Sam continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving at 045/28 kt. A faster northeastward motion is forecast through tonight as Sam moves within the strong southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down on Tuesday as it interacts with the trough/cut-off low. After that time, the system is forecast to turn east-northeastward, and then rotate cyclonically around the eastern flank of yet another cut-off low later in the week. The dynamical model guidance remains in generally good agreement on the overall track forecast scenario, albeit for some forward speed variations. The latest official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus in deference to the aforementioned along-track differences. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland for the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 42.6N 45.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48
2021-10-04 16:42:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 041442 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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