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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 40
2021-10-02 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 59.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, followed by more significant weakening early next week. Sam could become a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Sam is becoming a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2021-10-02 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 021449 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 40
2021-10-02 16:48:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 196 WTNT23 KNHC 021448 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 59.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 280SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 59.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.6N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.4N 55.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.2N 52.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 210SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.8N 47.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 270SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 340SE 410SW 310NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 53.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 59.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-10-02 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 08:47:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Oct 2021 09:23:08 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 39
2021-10-02 10:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020843 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters conducted their final mission into Sam a few hours ago and found that the hurricane is still of category 4 intensity, but the maximum winds have decreased some. The crew reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 130 kt (equating to surface winds of 115-120 kt) and unflagged SFMR winds of 110-115 kt. Based on these wind data, Sam's intensity is now estimated to be 115 kt. This value is at the upper end of the latest satellite estimates, which range from 100-115 kt. The hurricane's central pressure has also risen to 945 mb. Sam is still moving toward the north-northeast with a motion of 020/15 kt. The hurricane is entering the area between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada, and this flow should cause Sam to turn toward the northeast by tonight and then maintain that general heading for much of the forecast period. The storm is also expected to accelerate, reaching a peak forward speed of more than 25 kt in 60-72 hours. The track guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, but there is significantly more spread on days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty on exactly how Sam will interact with the aforementioned mid-/upper-level low. The NHC forecast has been placed near a blend of the GFS-ECMWF mean and the HCCA consensus aid, which necessitated a northward shift from the previous forecast only on days 4 and 5. Deep-layer southerly shear of 15-20 kt appears to be contributing to Sam's current weakening. Continued shear and cooler waters along Sam's path should lead to additional weakening in the coming days, although not at a rapid rate due to some baroclinic forcing. Global models suggest that Sam will begin extratropical transition in about 48 hours, with that process completing by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids during Sam's tropical phase, but then transitions to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance on days 3 through 5 during its extratropical phase. Sam is expected to continue producing hurricane-force winds through at least day 3, with more significant weakening occurring on days 4 and 5 once it is a vertically stacked occluded low. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Although the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda has been discontinued, a few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on the island during the morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 32.8N 60.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 34.6N 59.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 36.6N 57.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 38.4N 54.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 40.7N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 44.4N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 48.9N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0600Z 53.4N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0600Z 58.7N 26.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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