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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 13

2021-10-13 10:46:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE ITS CENTER NEARS THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 107.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Pamela is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning and move inland over western Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Pamela reaches the coast of west-central Mexico this morning. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h) was observed at Isla Maria Madre, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in a couple of hours, with tropical storm conditions continuing to spread over portions of the coast. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnant is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 13

2021-10-13 10:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 130845 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC WED OCT 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO CABO CORRIENTES * ISLAS MARIAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.6W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 107.6W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane Pamela (EP1/EP162021)

2021-10-12 19:43:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING PAMELA... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... As of 12:00 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 the center of Pamela was located near 20.5, -109.4 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 10A

2021-10-12 19:43:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121743 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 1200 PM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING PAMELA... ...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 109.4W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, in this case within the next 18 hours, producing conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 18 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 109.4 West. Pamela is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion should continue this afternoon, followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected this afternoon. Steady strengthening is forecast tonight and early Wednesday, and Pamela could be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California del Sur this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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