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Hurricane Rick Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-10-23 17:28:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 231528 CCA TCMEP2 HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 27/1200Z CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO...AND WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 101.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 101.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Rick Graphics
2021-10-23 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Oct 2021 14:47:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Oct 2021 15:22:31 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Rick (EP2/EP172021)
2021-10-23 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 the center of Rick was located near 14.7, -101.5 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Rick Public Advisory Number 5
2021-10-23 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 231446 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.7N 101.5W ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 101.5 West. Rick is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Rick is expected to become a major hurricane on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area by late Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by Sunday afternoon. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan from tonight through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Rick will begin to affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-10-23 16:46:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 231446 PWSEP2 HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 14(40) X(40) X(40) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 12(13) 51(64) 24(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) L CARDENAS 50 X 2( 2) 20(22) 33(55) 6(61) X(61) X(61) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 26(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 19(20) 47(67) 15(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 2( 2) 22(24) 19(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 100W 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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