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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 32
2021-08-21 10:58:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210858 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Hurricane Grace made landfall around 0600 UTC this morning near Tecolutla, Mexico with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the hurricane earlier tonight and found winds supporting an intensity of 105 kt. After the aircraft left the cyclone, the satellite appearance continued to improve with the eye clearing and becoming better-defined. Therefore, it is assumed that some additional strengthening occurred before landfall. Since that time, the inner-core of Grace has moved inland over eastern Mexico and recent radar and satellite images show a pronounced degradation of the eye and eyewall. Based on this trend, the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 95 kt. Grace is moving a little south of west, or 260/12 kt. A westward motion is forecast to continue through tonight until the cyclone dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is in line with the track consensus guidance. The hurricane's forecast motion will take it over the mountainous terrain of interior Mexico today into tonight. Therefore, rapid weakening is expected and the latest NHC intensity forecast for Grace is near the Decay SHIPS guidance. By tonight, the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over the higher terrain. As mentioned in previous advisories, the mid-level vortex of Grace is forecast to survive the westward passage over Mexico and reach the eastern Pacific late this weekend where a new tropical cyclone is expected to form. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely to continue along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico for the next few hours within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.5N 97.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.2N 99.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Grace Graphics
2021-08-21 10:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 08:56:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 08:56:43 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-21 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MEXICO TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Grace was located near 20.5, -97.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Grace Public Advisory Number 32
2021-08-21 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 885 WTNT32 KNHC 210853 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...GRACE MOVING WESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MEXICO TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 97.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SW OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere withing the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Grace was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 97.8 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, Grace will continue to move farther inland and reach central Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected as Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico today, and the hurricane is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by this afternoon, and then dissipate on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow during the next few hours near where Grace made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue within portions of the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico over the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico through this morning. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will result in significant flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides. SURF: High surf generated by Grace will affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2021-08-21 10:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 790 FONT12 KNHC 210853 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TUXPAN MX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TUXPAN MX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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