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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-19 04:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 190235 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...SHORT-LIVED ALPHA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW OVER THE DISTRICT OF VISEU PORTUGAL.. ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.9N 6.9W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM ENE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Portugal should monitor the progress of Alpha. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha was located near latitude 40.9 North, longitude 6.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 12 hours or so. Alpha should move across northern Portugal and Spain before dissipating later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Saturday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...Information on wind hazards from Alpha can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. RAINFALL...Alpha is expected to produce storm totals of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts of 3 inches over the northern portion of Portugal and into west-central Spain before rain tapers off later today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-19 04:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 190235 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 6.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 7.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.9N 6.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-18 22:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182055 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Alpha Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 900 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 Radar data from Portugal indicated that Alpha made landfall at about 1830 UTC with a fairly impressive spiral band signature. It is estimated that the winds were 45 kt at landfall, and a sustained 10-minute wind of 39 kt was recorded at Sao Pedro de Noel. The minimum central pressure is analyzed at 996 mb at landfall due to a 999 mb value at Monte Real with a 31-kt sustained wind. Since these data were recorded, the radar presentation has deteriorated, and satellite imagery suggests the small cyclone could be de-coupling from its mid-level center. The winds are assumed to have come down, with a current estimate of 40 kt. The small cyclone should continue to move northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 12-24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. No significant changes are required to the forecast for track or intensity. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 40.4N 8.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 19/0600Z 42.1N 6.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Graphics
2020-09-18 22:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:52:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:52:29 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-09-18 22:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 660 FONT14 KNHC 182052 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 8.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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