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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-05 22:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 20:51:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 20:51:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-06-05 22:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 052050 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 6(25) 6(31) X(31) X(31) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 27(45) X(45) X(45) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 28(49) 1(50) X(50) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 28(39) 16(55) 1(56) X(56) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 16(16) 48(64) 9(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 1(33) X(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 25(52) 1(53) X(53) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 10(10) 39(49) 10(59) 4(63) 1(64) X(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 1(45) X(45) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 24(45) 1(46) X(46) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 1(28) X(28) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 25(35) X(35) X(35) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 19(50) X(50) X(50) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-05 22:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 the center of Cristobal was located near 21.4, -89.7 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 17
2020-06-05 22:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052049 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 ...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 89.7W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for areas outside the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Arepika Florida * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 89.7 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Ocean Springs MS to Indian Pass FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Indian Pass FL to Aripeka FL...2-4 ft Aripeka FL to Marco Island FL including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Morgan City LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Farther north across the mid-Mississippi Valley, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash flooding, and widespread flooding on smaller streams is possible across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches. Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-06-05 22:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 052049 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE AND STORM DAMAGE RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR * PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 89.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 89.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 90.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.9N 90.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...220NE 220SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 0SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 30.4N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.8N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 39.5N 91.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 50.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 89.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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