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Tropical Depression Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-05 17:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 15:32:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-05 17:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 15:32:36 GMT
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-05 16:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 14:50:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 14:50:21 GMT
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-06-05 16:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051449 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Although the center of circulation is still over land, the system is gradually becoming better organized on satellite images. A large convective band has become better defined over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. However, central convective features are still lacking. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt based on surface synoptic observations. Re-intensification should begin later today, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Cristobal this evening as the center moves back over water. Additional intensification is anticipated through early Sunday, however this should be limited due to dry mid-level air and some shear. The official intensity forecast is about the same as in previous advisories and is near or above the latest intensity model consensus. The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the north, or about 360/10 kt. For the next couple of days Cristobal should move mainly northward through a weakness between subtropical anticyclones. A gradual bend toward the north-northwest is likely after the center reaches the northern Gulf coast due to some building of a ridge to the northeast. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed to the east of the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Florida Big Bend, in portions of southeastern Louisiana, and along the Mississippi coast within the next 48 hours, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for these areas. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm force winds beginning Sunday morning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 4. Heavy rainfall will spread onto portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding and rapid rises on smaller streams and rivers possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 20.0N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON COAST 72H 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-06-05 16:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 051448 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) X(12) X(12) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) X(18) X(18) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 1(24) X(24) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 17(28) 1(29) X(29) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 5( 6) 22(28) 18(46) 6(52) X(52) X(52) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 23(29) 1(30) X(30) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 4( 5) 17(22) 22(44) 10(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 22(25) 1(26) 1(27) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 24(28) X(28) 1(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 17(20) 1(21) 1(22) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 1(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 22 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) COZUMEL MX 34 9 2(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BELIZE CITY 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) KEESLER AB 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 10(25) 1(26) X(26) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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