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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 02:20:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260019 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Corrected 48-h formation chance to 60 percent in first paragraph For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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atlantic
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tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 01:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
671 ABPZ20 KNHC 252332 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 19:58:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251758 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 19:53:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 251753 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that the center of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better defined, and the system is already producing winds near tropical-storm strength. In addition, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph, offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 13:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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