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Hurricane Henri Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-21 17:13:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 15:13:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-21 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 14:59:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 14:59:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 33
2021-08-21 16:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211454 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Grace has continued to move over east-central Mexico since making landfall around 0600 UTC. Visible satellite images show that the system's organization is degrading, but there is still some deep convection near the center with a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Assuming a slightly faster rate of weakening than given by the Decay-SHIPS output to account for the mountainous terrain, the advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Additional rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and tonight. Grace is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength tonight and dissipate tomorrow morning. After making a southwestward turn just after landfall, the current motion is just a little south of west, or 250/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should cause a generally westward motion until dissipation on Sunday. The mid-level remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward after the surface center dissipates, and to emerge into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is a good chance that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that basin by early next week. Key Messages: 1. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 19.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER LAND BUT STILL CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Grace was located near 19.7, -98.9 with movement WSW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2021-08-21 16:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 211454 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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