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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-23 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Recent scatterometer wind data indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined. In addition, convective activity has persisted and expanded over the western portion of the circulation overnight, resulting in Dvorak T-numbers of 1.5 and 2.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Both ASCAT-A and B instruments revealed 30 to 35 kt winds over the western portion of the circulation and based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Marty, the thirteenth named-storm of the 2021 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Marty is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge that extends from the south-central United States westward across northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific is forecast to steer Marty westward over the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to weaken and become vertically shallow. This should cause it to turn toward the west-southwest as it steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The dynamical model guidance is in excellent agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the tightly clustered model envelope. Although the tropical storm is currently located over warm waters, it is within an area of moderate northeasterly shear. In addition, it is likely to ingest drier and more stable air located to the northwest of the system over the next couple of days. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast. By 36 hours, Marty is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and gradual weakening is anticipated after that time. Less favorable thermodynamic conditions should result in the system becoming a remnant low in 60 to 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 20.0N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-23 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 9 54(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 115W 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-23 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 the center of Marty was located near 20.0, -111.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marty Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-23 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230836 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 111.0W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.0 West. Marty is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is forecast over the next few days. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-23 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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