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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-08-17 10:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 170830 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-17 07:48:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 05:48:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Aug 2021 03:29:20 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-17 07:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Grace was located near 18.1, -74.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-08-17 07:47:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170547 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 74.5 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica this afternoon. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this morning, and in Jamaica this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through today. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-17 07:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FRED MOVING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 17 the center of Fred was located near 31.7, -85.2 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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