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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-17 06:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 170456 CCA TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Corrected statement in movement section Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory. Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids, and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear and dry mid-level environment. Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move in a clockwise motion over the next several days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.7N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-08-17 04:48:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 778 WTNT41 KNHC 170248 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations, indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that Fred's circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on Wednesday near the central Appalachians. Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed dynamical model guidance. Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 31.2N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF FRED MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Fred was located near 31.2, -85.2 with movement NNE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 170247 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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