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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-15 04:57:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 150257 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 18(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X 30(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PONCE PR 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 39(39) 10(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 32(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SAN JUAN PR 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 6 44(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) VIEQUES PR 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 8 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 34 52 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT CROIX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABA 34 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ST EUSTATIUS 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) ANTIGUA 34 64 X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 04:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS A PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.8, -62.4 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-15 04:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150256 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS A PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 62.4W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire coast of Haiti. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat, and the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for this area tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 62.4 West. Grace is now moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued west-northwest motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace is expected to pass near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or over the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday, and then near or over Haiti Monday night. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater Antilles Monday and Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow, and in the Dominican Republic tomorrow night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic tomorrow night and Monday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Saturday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-15 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 260 WTNT22 KNHC 150253 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, ANGUILLA, ST. KITTS AND NEVIS, AND MONTSERRAT, AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO, INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO CABO CAUCEDO * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 64.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.1N 67.0W...NEAR PUERTO RICO MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.7N 69.1W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.9W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 73.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.2N 75.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.7N 81.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 25.6N 84.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 62.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 01:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW NEAR GUADELOUPE... ...SQUALLY WEATHER MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 14 the center of Grace was located near 16.6, -61.5 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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