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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-08-15 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150859 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 Radar data from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as satellite images, indicate that Grace is still not a well-organized tropical cyclone, although over the past few hours banding features have become more evident and the outflow has improved. An earlier ASCAT-C overpass showed peak winds of 30 kt associated with Grace, and the latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was 35 kt. Assuming some undersampling from the ASCAT instrument, the initial intensity estimate remains 35 kt for this advisory. Grace continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, or 285/18 kt to the south of a strong mid-level ridge. Aside from the HWRF, which is a northern outlier and has not performed particularly well for Fred or Grace, and also the Canadian model, which is a southern outlier, the track guidance has come into better agreement on the future path of Grace. The cyclone is expected to slow its forward speed today, and maintain a west-northwestward motion to the south of the ridge for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, and then was adjusted a little to the south of the previous one thereafter. On this path, Grace would pass just south of Puerto Rico later today, cross Hispaniola tonight through Monday night, then move along the northern coast of Cuba Tuesday and Wednesday. Grace is in an environment favorable for intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to 45 kt before it reaches the Dominican Republic Monday morning. This portion of the forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models. The intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain thereafter, and is dependent on how much of the Greater Antilles the cyclone interacts with. Based on the current track forecast, Grace would cross a large portion of the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, then interact with the landmass of Cuba for a couple of days. There is a decent chance that the low-level center of Grace could dissipate over Hispaniola as the system opens back into a tropical wave. However, due to the possibility of the center remaining intact after crossing that landmass, the NHC forecast calls for weakening followed by little change in strength thereafter as it moves along the Cuban coastline. The latest NHC intensity forecast beyond 24 h is little changed from the previous one, and is close to the FSU Superensemble. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the Leewards Islands this morning and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over eastern parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over western portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday and Monday night. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida, but forecast uncertainty remains higher than usual. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 17.5N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.3N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 18.9N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 48H 17/0600Z 19.8N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 60H 17/1800Z 20.9N 75.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 18/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR CUBA COAST 96H 19/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 25.6N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-15 10:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 15 the center of Grace was located near 16.9, -64.4 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-15 10:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150855 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021 ...GRACE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 64.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Caucedo to the southern Haitian Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Sint Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * Dominican Republic from the southern Haitian border to Samana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to Samana * Entire coast of Haiti A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Grace reaches Hispaniola on Monday. Weakening is forecast as the system crosses Hispaniola Monday and Monday night. Little change in strength is expected on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Leeward Islands this morning, in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the Dominican Republic Monday, and in Haiti on Monday night. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts Sunday into Tuesday: Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic ...4 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-08-15 10:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 150855 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 11(11) 17(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 21 8(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AGUADILLA PR 34 8 20(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN JUAN PR 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 8
2021-08-15 10:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150854 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CAUCEDO TO THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * SINT MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITIAN BORDER TO SAMANA * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 64.4W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 64.4W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.5N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 68.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.9N 70.6W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N 72.6W...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 75.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 78.0W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.9N 82.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 25.6N 86.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 64.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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