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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-30 10:49:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 08:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 08:49:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-06-30 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 843 WTPZ45 KNHC 300835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south of the estimated center. This convective area has expanded a bit over the past few hours. On this basis, the cyclone is maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Enrique should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction. Enrique should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in 36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct. Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. A weak ridge to the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation. The official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected consensus solution. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-30 10:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 the center of Enrique was located near 24.2, -109.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 21
2021-06-30 10:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 587 WTPZ35 KNHC 300834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 109.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 109.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, Enrique will move over the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Enrique is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression later today and dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across Sinaloa, western Durango, and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. These rainfall totals may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-06-30 10:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 300834 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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