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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-06-25 16:48:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 885 FOPZ15 KNHC 251448 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 14(21) 5(26) 1(27) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 105W 34 7 31(38) 12(50) 3(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 105W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 7(22) 1(23) X(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 1 10(11) 16(27) 12(39) 7(46) X(46) 1(47) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 6 8(14) 6(20) 3(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 6(10) 4(14) 2(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 10(24) 4(28) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 3(18) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-25 16:48:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE INTENSIFYING... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 the center of Enrique was located near 15.6, -102.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 2
2021-06-25 16:48:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251448 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...ENRIQUE INTENSIFYING... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Punta San Telmo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... *Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.5 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is expected to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest forecast to occur by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Enrique could become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-06-25 16:47:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251447 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.5W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.5W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.9N 103.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.4N 104.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 105.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.6N 106.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.5N 106.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 108.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.9N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-25 10:44:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Jun 2021 08:44:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Jun 2021 09:22:34 GMT
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