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Tropical Storm Claudette Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-06-19 19:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191735 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 88.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Mississippi River has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast and across the southeast U.S. should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 88.6 West. Claudette is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should move farther inland across portions of the southeast U.S. through Sunday night, and over the western Atlantic Ocean on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Claudette is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today, however, Claudette is forecast to become a tropical storm again when it moves across the Carolinas Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Claudette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Claudette is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely across these areas. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will occur across central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and into the Piedmont of the Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... MS/AL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cape Lookout, NC to NC/VA Border...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area for a couple of more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across southeast Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Claudette Graphics
2021-06-19 16:41:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 14:41:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 14:41:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-06-19 16:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191439 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located over southern Mississippi. Most of the showers and thunderstorms are still located on the storm's east side and extend across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Based on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be 35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt. A turn to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. This motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S. during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic and toward Atlantic Canada early next week. The models are in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is very similar to the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range forecast times. In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today. In 36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the Carolinas Sunday night and Monday. This predicted strengthening is likely due in part to baroclinic processes. The ECMWF model is the most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the center is located over eastern North Carolina. Once the system moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic Canada. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida. These winds will continue for a few more hours. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 31.0N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0000Z 32.0N 88.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 32.9N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/0000Z 33.7N 81.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 35.0N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/0000Z 37.5N 72.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 22/1200Z 40.4N 67.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 49.5N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2021-06-19 16:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 191439 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 5 11(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WHITING FLD FL 34 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) PENSACOLA FL 34 27 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MOBILE AL 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Claudette (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-19 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Claudette was located near 31.0, -89.7 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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