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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-10-11 04:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 110253 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF PANAMA CITY AND SOUTHEAST OF KEATON BEACH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO KEATON BEACH FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 83.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 83.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.0N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 130SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.4N 77.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 160SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.3N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP OVR WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 120SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 42.4N 60.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 300SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 47.9N 35.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...160NE 420SE 360SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 49.7N 13.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.1N 83.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-11 04:00:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...10 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...CENTER OF MICHAEL NOW MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND... ...STORM SURGE LEVELS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THE GULF COAST... As of 10:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Michael was located near 31.9, -84.1 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Michael Update Statement
2018-10-11 04:00:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT64 KNHC 110200 TCUAT4 Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...10 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...CENTER OF MICHAEL NOW MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...DAMAGING WINDS STILL OCCURRING INLAND... ...STORM SURGE LEVELS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING ON THE GULF COAST... NOAA Doppler weather radar data indicate that the center of Michael is now moving into south-central Georgia. Winds are continuing to decease across the Florida panhandle. Storm surge levels will continue to decrease along the coast of the Florida Panhandle tonight. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola is now indicating about 2 feet of inundation above ground level. SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 84.1W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 17A
2018-10-11 01:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 102357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...DAMAGING WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...STORM FLOODING STILL OCCURRING ALONG THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 84.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Michael was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 84.5 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion should continue tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia tonight, and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (119 km/h) were recently measured at the Albany Georgia airport. A wind gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...4-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3-5 ft Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 3 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over south-central Georgia tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-11 01:01:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...7 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST AND DAMAGING WINDS INLAND CONTINUE... As of 7:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 the center of Michael was located near 31.1, -84.9 with movement NNE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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