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Tropical Storm Michael Graphics
2018-10-11 22:53:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 20:53:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 20:53:23 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Michael (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-11 22:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 the center of Michael was located near 36.1, -78.8 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 21
2018-10-11 22:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 112051 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River South Carolina has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 78.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this evening, and move into the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km), primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at Danville, Virginia, and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) was reported at Burlington, North Carolina. A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h) at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surface observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of northeastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina. Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occuring across portions of central North Carolina and southern Virginia and will spread across northeastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia this evening and tonight. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south- central to southeast Virginia, including the southern Delmarva Peninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastal northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening from northeastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2018-10-11 22:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 112051 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 64(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 17 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) NORFOLK NAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) NORFOLK VA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) OCEANA NAS VA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) RALEIGH NC 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NEW RIVER NC 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) MOREHEAD CITY 34 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-10-11 22:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 112050 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 78.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 200SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 78.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.1N 74.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 240SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 41.2N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 270SE 180SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 44.5N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 360SE 270SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 47.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 210SE 210SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 48.5N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 360SE 360SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 46.5N 7.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 78.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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