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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 3

2021-06-18 11:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180901 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 3...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Corrected to add states to storm surge communication points ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward for the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was centered near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. The system is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A slow northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches), based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.huricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay ...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL... 1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 1

2021-06-18 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 180859 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 101.6W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from Cabo Corrientes southward to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... *Cabo Corrientes to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 101.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this forward motion is expected to continue with a turn to the northwest and north-northwest over the next 24 h. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next 36 h and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four-E will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 2A

2021-06-18 07:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180540 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 100 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 92.0W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was centered near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning today and continuing through the weekend from along the Central Gulf coast, northeastward into the southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to begin this afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama Friday night into Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 2

2021-06-18 04:37:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 92.2W ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 92.2 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast Friday and Friday night. A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from along the Central Gulf coast, northeastward into the southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama Friday night into Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 1A

2021-06-18 01:38:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 172338 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 700 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 92.3W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 92.3 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight and Friday. A subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the west-central Gulf of Mexico tonight or early Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from the Central Gulf coast northeastward into the Southern Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a couple tornadoes should begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and southwest Alabama on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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