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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 5

2020-10-05 22:53:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 052053 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 79.4W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Tulum northward and westward to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Delta is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest should occur this evening. A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 27

2020-10-05 22:43:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...MARIE NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 132.7W ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 132.7 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Marie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Gamma Public Advisory Number 14

2020-10-05 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gamma Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...GAMMA BECOMES A DEPRESSION... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 88.1W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Warning and the Tropical Storm Watch along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gamma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 88.1 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a southwest, or west-southwest motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula Tuesday and remain over the northern portion of the peninsula and dissipate Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight and dissipate over the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding. WIND: Gusty winds are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today through Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Delta Public Advisory Number 4A

2020-10-05 19:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 051747 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 79.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.2 West. Delta is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday before it nears western Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Gamma Public Advisory Number 13A

2020-10-05 19:46:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 051746 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...GAMMA CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 87.9W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Dzilam to Campeche Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected to occur later today somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 87.9 West. Gamma is moving toward the southwest near 4 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday morning. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should move inland over the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night and remain inland through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast, and Gamma is expected to become a depression this evening and degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Gamma is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce significant flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula for a brief period this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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