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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-29 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DEPRESSION BATTLING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS... ...COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 49.8W ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 49.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected thereafter through early this week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-29 10:51:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 105.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-08-29 07:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 108 WTNT34 KNHC 290552 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IDA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 88.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 6 to 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Ida was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 88.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will continue moving across the north-central Gulf of Mexico this morning, and make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area this afternoon or evening. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue during the next 12 hours or so, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast this afternoon. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning by late morning with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana later this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley by later today into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and riverine flooding impacts. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 200 AM CDT. These can be found under WMO header WTNT64 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT4. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 14A
2021-08-29 07:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 171 WTPZ34 KNHC 290534 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 105.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 22.0 North, longitude 105.7 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early this week along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of this week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 14
2021-08-29 04:59:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290258 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA CAUSING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COASTS OF JALISCO AND NAYARIT... ...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO SINALOA OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 105.5W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from east of Playa Perula to Manzanillo and has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from north of Altata to Topolobampo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 21.3 North, longitude 105.5 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely tonight or on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early near week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move farther inland and dissipate. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves further inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the southern hurricane warning area tonight and could spread northward through the warning area on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico and are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the states of Michoacan northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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