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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Information by ATCF XML Prototype
2013-10-25 04:34:35| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at Fri, 25 Oct 2013 02:34:35 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
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Tropical Storm RAYMOND 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)
2013-10-25 04:33:56| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Fri, 25 Oct 2013 02:33:56 GMT
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raymond
Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 21
2013-10-25 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250233 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013 RAYMOND HAS MADE A COMEBACK TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE DONE A REMARKABLY GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING THE CHANGE FROM UNFAVORABLE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. NOW THAT THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN HAS MATERIALIZED...AS SEEN BY A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WITH THE UPWARD INTENSITY TREND SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE HWRF APPEARS TO BE ALONE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING RAYMOND ON A GRADUAL STEADY DECAY OR WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND IS FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP RAYMOND ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO. BY DAY 4 AND BEYOND...THE SAME APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE THE SHEAR WILL ALSO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION TROUGH DAY 3 OR SO...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING THE CYCLONE MEANDERING...AND OTHERS MOVING IT NORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER. THE FIRST SOLUTION IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR SINCE BY THAT TIME...RAYMOND SHOULD BE WEAKER AND STEERED BY A MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 14.6N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 13.7N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm RAYMOND (EP2/EP172013)
2013-10-25 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RAYMOND MAKING A COMEBACK... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 the center of RAYMOND was located near 14.6, -107.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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raymond
Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Advisory Number 21
2013-10-25 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 25 2013 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250233 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 0300 UTC FRI OCT 25 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.7N 113.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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