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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-16 22:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 20:53:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Aug 2021 21:36:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-16 22:46:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 162046 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC. Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020, 2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the season. Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system, which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below. The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly below the IVCN intensity consensus. The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward. The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 31.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-16 22:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 162045 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) 4(18) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-16 22:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 16 the center of Henri was located near 31.0, -62.9 with movement SSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-16 22:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 162045 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM HENRI... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 62.9W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. Henri is moving toward the south-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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