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Tropical Storm Isaias Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-08-04 11:18:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 09:18:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-08-04 10:56:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 08:56:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-08-04 10:52:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 08:52:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 09:24:53 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2020-08-04 10:51:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 040851 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PORTLAND ME 34 2 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CONCORD NH 34 3 54(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CONCORD NH 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 2 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WORCESTER MA 34 8 54(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) WORCESTER MA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 16 65(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BOSTON MA 34 4 33(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) HYANNIS MA 34 4 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PROVIDENCE RI 34 10 34(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 72 21(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 6 20(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW HAVEN CT 34 55 34(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) NEW HAVEN CT 50 3 16(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HARTFORD CT 34 31 53(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HARTFORD CT 50 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW LONDON CT 34 24 42(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY NY 34 10 67(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ALBANY NY 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ALBANY NY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 57 36(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 25 31(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 81 10(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLIP NY 50 10 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 26 14(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 28 10(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 95 3(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEWARK NJ 50 31 6(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NEWARK NJ 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) TRENTON NJ 50 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) TRENTON NJ 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NWS EARLE NJ 50 38 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NWS EARLE NJ 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ALLENTOWN PA 34 83 X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ALLENTOWN PA 50 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ALLENTOWN PA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PHILADELPHIA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PHILADELPHIA 50 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PHILADELPHIA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTIC CITY 50 53 X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) ATLANTIC CITY 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BALTIMORE MD 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) DOVER DE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOVER DE 50 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) DOVER DE 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WASHINGTON DC 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) WASHINGTON DC 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEAN CITY MD 50 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) OCEAN CITY MD 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PAX RIVER NAS 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PAX RIVER NAS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WALLOPS CDA 50 73 X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) WALLOPS CDA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) RICHMOND VA 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK NAS 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NORFOLK NAS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 50 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NORFOLK VA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEANA NAS VA 50 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 50 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 61 X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 29
2020-08-04 10:51:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 040851 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Isaias made landfall near Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina, a few minutes after the previous advisory package was issued. Since that time, the center of Isaias has been moving quickly north-northeastward across eastern North Carolina. Now that the inner core of Isaias has moved inland, the peak surface winds have decreased despite Doppler radar data still showing an area of 75-85 kt winds aloft. The latest surface observations indicated that strong winds are occuring over the North Carolina Sounds and Outer Banks. Based on a blend of the available data, the initial wind speed is set at 60 kt for this advisory. As the tropical storm moves northward near the Mid-Atlantic coast, interaction with a strong jet stream is likely to result in a slower-than-typical weakening rate. The global model guidance indicates that Isaias is likely to produce widespread tropical-storm conditions, with hurricane-force wind gusts possible along the mid-Atlantic coast through this afternoon. As a result, the gust factor at 12 h has been increased above the standard 20 percent in the Forecast/Advisory (TCMAT4). Isaias is forecast to weaken more quickly tonight as it moves into eastern Canada and becomes post-tropical. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low in 2-3 days, if not sooner. Isaias is moving north-northeastward or 020/24 kt. The cyclone is forecast to continue accelerating north-northeastward today as it is embedded in strong south-southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough over the Great Lakes region. After 24 h, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to decelerate before it is absorbed by the extratropical low. The updated NHC track forecast is near the center of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. In addition to the storm surge and wind threats, Isaias is expected to produce heavy rainfall along and just west of the I-95 corridor today, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed a portion of this area in a high risk for life-threatening flash flooding. There is also a risk of tornadoes from southeast Virginia to New Jersey through midday. The risk of tornadoes will spread northward into southeastern New York this afternoon and across New England by tonight. Key Messages: 1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways of the North Carolina coast, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Isaias is expected to bring widespread sustained tropical storm force winds and wind gusts to hurricane force to the mid-Atlantic coast, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, through this afternoon, which could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across New England tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will result in flash flooding, some of which may be significant in North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through tonight. Potentially life-threatening urban flooding is possible in D.C., Baltimore, and elsewhere along and just west of the I-95 corridor today. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding. 4. Tornadoes have already occurred over portions of northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia overnight. The threat of tornadoes will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast today and then across New England by tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 36.3N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 40.3N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 45.8N 72.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 50.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0600Z 53.2N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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