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Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-04 22:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 20:41:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 21:25:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-06-04 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little deep convection near the center. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt, although this may be generous. Since the center should remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening could occur during the next 12-24 hours. A re-intensification trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then. As noted earlier, the atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some mid-level dry air. There are a number of arc clouds noted in satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of drier air at mid-levels. As in the earlier advisories, the NHC intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus. Due to the limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic loop within a broad gyre. Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There has not been much change in the official track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track. This should not be considered as a significant change, however, especially for a broad cyclone such as this one. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.5N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-04 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 the center of Cristobal was located near 17.5, -90.8 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 13
2020-06-04 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 90.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight or Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 90.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight, and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification is expected to begin late Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-06-04 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 042040 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) 1(22) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31) 1(32) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 3(18) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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