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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 18
2021-09-01 16:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 011455 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...STRUGGLING KATE NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH LONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 52.3W ABOUT 910 MI...1460 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 52.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast on Thursday before the cyclone dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated over the next several days. Kate is expected to become a remnant low tomorrow, and dissipate entirely on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-01 16:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011454 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 52.3W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.9N 52.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.6N 53.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N 53.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.4N 52.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Larry Graphics
2021-09-01 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 14:52:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 14:52:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-01 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011450 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Larry is becoming better organized, with curved convective bands increasing around the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates were in the 35-55 kt range around 12Z, and ASCAT data near the time showed 40 kt winds. Based on increasing organization since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Larry is moving quickly westward, although there is some uncertainty in the forward speed due to the possibility the center re-formed during the night. The best estimate of the motion is 270/19 kt. As noted in the previous advisory, the cyclone is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. After 36 h, there is some spread in the track guidance, with the GFS generally on the right side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET on the left side, a spread often seen for westward-moving cyclones south of the Bermuda-Azores high. Due to a more westerly initial position, the guidance has shifted a little more to the west, and the new forecast track is again shifted to the west of the previous track. The new forecast lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 48-60 h due to light shear, a moist environment, and sea surface temperatures of 27-28C along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast calls for Larry to become a hurricane in about 24 h and a major hurricane near 60 h. After that time, the global models suggest the possibility of dry air entrainment, and by 120 h there is likely to be moderate westerly shear over the cyclone. Based on this forecast environment and the guidance trends, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength from 72-120 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 12.3N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 12.4N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 12.7N 33.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.2N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.9N 39.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 15.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-01 16:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 PM CVT Wed Sep 1 the center of Larry was located near 12.3, -27.6 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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