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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2021-07-07 22:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 072056 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 20(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 23(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DANVILLE VA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 6 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 13 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAVANNAH GA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WAYCROSS GA 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-07-07 19:58:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 17:58:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-07 19:54:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 17:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 15:22:45 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-07 19:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 the center of Elsa was located near 30.3, -83.5 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 30A
2021-07-07 19:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071753 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 ...ELSA INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 83.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All warnings have been discontinued south of the Suwannee River, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River * Mouth of St. Marys River, Georgia to Little River Inlet, South Carolina A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Little River Inlet, South Carolina to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in southeastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 83.5 West. Elsa is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over Georgia tonight, over South Carolina early on Thursday, over North Carolina later on Thursday, and move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected through tomorrow as Elsa moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along the Gulf coast of Florida in the warning area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Georgia coast by late today or tonight and along the South Carolina coast tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states by Thursday night and Friday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Aucilla River...2 to 4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Suwannee River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...1 to 3 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across western and northern portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 6 inches with localized maximum storm totals up to 9 inches today, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches tonight through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. Across the Northeast and New England, 1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Thursday into Friday will be possible. This could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia into eastern South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the west coast of Florida through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin/Brown
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