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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Graphics
2021-07-09 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 20:43:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Jul 2021 21:22:38 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 39
2021-07-09 22:42:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 092042 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa's deep convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 45 kt. Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). Elsa's classification at the time the center crossed the coast will be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed from the cyclone's center. Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. 2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 43.0N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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elsa
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-09 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US THIS EVENING... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Jul 9 the center of Elsa was located near 43.0, -69.5 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Public Advisory Number 39
2021-07-09 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 092042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021 ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED... ...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S. coast have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Surface observations during the past several hours indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by Sunday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday. RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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elsa
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2021-07-09 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 092042 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PTX BASQUES 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) EDDY POINT NS 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 34 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MONCTON NB 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MONCTON NB 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) EASTPORT ME 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BAR HARBOR ME 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY