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Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-05-25 16:43:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 251443 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 1500 UTC FRI MAY 25 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO * CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALBERTO. TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 86.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 86.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 87.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 86.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 22.0N 86.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 24.1N 85.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 26.7N 86.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 29.3N 87.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 31.0N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 33.6N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 86.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Subtropical storm Alex: Is climate change to blame rare Jan hurricanes?
2016-01-14 13:26:00| Climate Ark Climate Change & Global Warming Newsfeed
Christian Science Monitor: A subtropical storm is surprising meteorologists as it forms early in January, nearly six months ahead of the typical tropical storm season. Subtropical storm Alex is building over the Atlantic Ocean and is gaining strength as it approaches the Azores Islands, a chain of nine major islands owned by Portugal. By Thursday morning, Alex had produced sustained winds of 70 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June through November. The first named storm doesn't typically appear...
Subtropical Storm ALEX Graphics
2016-01-14 09:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 08:40:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Jan 2016 08:50:49 GMT
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-01-14 09:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140849 TCDAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 500 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016 Since the previous advisory, the convective structure of Alex has continued to improve with a 15-nmi clear eye now embedded within a solid cloud shield of tops colder than -50C, with a ring of cloud tops near -60C surrounding the eye in the northern semicircle. The intensity of Alex is difficult to ascertain due to its subtropical characteristics, and satellite intensity estimates range from ST3.5/55 kt from TAFB to a tropical T4.5/77 kt from SAB. NHC AODT intensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt to T4.5/77 kt using a tropical pattern and various eye scenes. Since the overall cloud pattern of Alex has improved markedly since the earlier 50-kt ASCAT-B scatterometer wind data, and a clear and distinct eye feature is now evident, the intensity is being raised to 60 kt. Alex continues to gradually turn toward the left and the initial motion is now 020/16 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northward during the next 12 hours or so as it is steered by deep southerly flow between a large extratropical low centered over the northwest Atlantic and a subtropical ridge over northwestern Africa. A general northward motion is expected to continue through at least 36 hours, which should bring the center of Alex through the central Azores in about 30 hours or 1200 UTC 15 January. By 48 hours, Alex should start to turn more toward the northwest and west as it moves closer to the center of a larger extratropical low forecast to be south of Greenland on days 3 and 4. The new forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track through 36 hours, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA. Global and regional models, plus geostationary and microwave satellite data, indicate that Alex remains a vertically stacked low pressure system up to the 200 mb level, suggesting that the cyclone is still primarily a subtropical storm. However, water vapor imagery during the past few hours has been hinting that some weak upper-level outflow might be trying to develop. GFS and NAM model forecast soundings indicate that the current inner-core region of Alex with Lifted Indices (LI) of -2 and CAPE values of 400-500 are only expected to decrease to LI of -1 and CAPE near 300 as the cyclone nears the Azores islands in 24-30 hours. In addition, the inner-core region is forecast to remain saturated up to the 200 mb level, along with precipitable water values around 1.60 inches. This would suggest that Alex could remain as a subtropical cyclone by the time it reaches the Azores, and some slight strengthening is even possible as 300 mb temperatures are forecast to decrease from -40C to around -42C in the inner core. The official intensity has been nudged upward and is similar to a blend of the ECMWF and HRWF model intensity forecasts. Gale- and storm-force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, are likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning tonight and continuing into early Friday. Recent communications with the Azores Meteorological Office indicate that wind gusts to a least 70 kt (130 km/h) are forecast to occur across portions of the central and eastern Azores islands. However, stronger gusts will be possible at higher elevations, especially over mountain tops and ridges. Interests in the Azores should closely monitor the progress of Alex and official forecasts issued by the Azores weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 30.1N 29.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 28.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 36.4N 27.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 42.0N 28.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0600Z 49.1N 29.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0600Z 60.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm ALEX Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-01-14 09:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 140842 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016 0900 UTC THU JAN 14 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 43(43) 19(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PONTA DELGADA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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