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Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-14 10:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 08:57:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 08:57:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-14 10:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Radar and surface observations indicate that Nicholas has continued to move slowly inland and has weakened during the past few hours, with the strongest winds now located near southern Galveston Bay. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, perhaps generously. Additional weakening is anticipated as Nicholas moves over land, with increasing southwesterly shear also assisting this process. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. The storm is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt, and should gradually turn northeastward and eastward during the next day or so. Nicholas is likely to slow to a crawl over Louisiana on Wednesday as it loses any significant steering. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, but a smidge faster. While the exact track is tough to pin down due to inconsistent model forecasts, most guidance shows a significant flash flood risk along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Sargent to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast today and along the southwestern Louisiana coast by afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 29.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-09-14 10:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 14 Sep 2021 08:56:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-14 10:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 the center of Nicholas was located near 29.3, -95.6 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-14 10:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140855 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 ...NICHOLAS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 95.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF HOUSTON TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Cameron, Louisiana. The Hurricane Warning is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Matagorda to Freeport. The Storm Surge Warning from Port O'Connor to Sargent including Matagorda Bay has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning is discontinued from south of Matagorda to Port O'Connor. The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from Freeport to San Luis Pass. The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued from Port O'Connor to North of Port Aransas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Matagorda to Cameron A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 95.6 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm should move more slowly to the northeast later today and then eastward by Wednesday over Louisiana. Little motion is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicholas should weaken further today and is forecast to become a tropical depression by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A NOAA station at Galveston Bay, Texas recently reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) gusting to 68 mph (109 km/h). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches from the upper Texas coastal area into central to southern Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama, with isolated storm totals of 20 inches across central to southern Louisiana. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across these regions. Widespread minor to isolated major river flooding is expected across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast and southern Louisiana and Mississippi. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicholas see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44KWBC or at the following link https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft High Island, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA...2-4 ft Port Aransas, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within the warning area across Texas coasts through this morning and start along the Louisiana coast by afternoon. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today and tonight along the upper Texas Coast and southern Louisiana. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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