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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-06-06 16:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061454 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ANDREA HAS BEEN IMPROVING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN WARMING. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS LOCATED IN A BAND THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME...AND THE TAMPA WSR-88D HAS BEEN SHOWING 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 6500 FT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT PENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THIS AFTERNOON. ANDREA HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/13 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND IT IS GETTING CLOSER TO FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANDREA TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. GIVEN THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...THERE IS NO STRONG EVIDENCE THAT ANDREA WILL STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND... SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT ANDREA WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE. THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS DO NOT SHOW STRONG BAROCLINICITY UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE TRANSITION COULD BE COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP ANDREA AS TROPICAL UNTIL 36 HOURS. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS ADVISORY. BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE PRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 28.2N 84.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 30.3N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 07/1200Z 33.4N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/0000Z 37.3N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 46.5N 54.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 47.0N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 52.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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andrea
Tropical Storm ANDREA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-06-06 16:53:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 061453 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1500 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 7 16 23 23 19 TROP DEPRESSION 5 23 20 32 33 30 21 TROPICAL STORM 92 69 65 48 41 44 50 HURRICANE 4 5 8 4 3 4 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 5 7 4 3 4 9 HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 X X X 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT 35KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 22(22) 12(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 39(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 40(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 26(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 12(12) 34(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 31(31) 16(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 46(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 5 45(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS 34 38 26(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MAYPORT NS 50 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) JACKSONVILLE 34 50 21(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) JACKSONVILLE 50 10 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) JACKSONVILLE 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 23 4(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ORLANDO FL 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) COCOA BEACH FL 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PATRICK AFB 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CEDAR KEY FL 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) CEDAR KEY FL 50 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm ANDREA (AT1/AL012013)
2013-06-06 16:53:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 the center of ANDREA was located near 28.2, -84.3 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Public Advisory Number 4
2013-06-06 16:53:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 061453 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 84.3W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO INDIAN PASS * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. ANDREA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA WILL REACH THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WHILE THE CENTER OF ANDREA MOVES OVER LAND. ANDREA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. A WIND GUST TO 48 MPH...78 KM/H WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA...2 TO 5 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT FLAGLER BEACH NORTH TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...1 TO 2 FT THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE... AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm ANDREA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2013-06-06 16:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061453 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013 1500 UTC THU JUN 06 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO INDIAN PASS * FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 84.3W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 84.3W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.3N 82.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 33.4N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.3N 76.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 41.8N 70.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 46.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 47.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 84.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
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