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Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Public Advisory Number 5

2014-10-23 04:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 90.9W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH ...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE LOW MOVES OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2014-10-23 04:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 230236 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NINE Forecast Advisory Number 5

2014-10-23 04:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230235 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 0300 UTC THU OCT 23 2014 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 90.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 90.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.8N 90.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.5N 89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 88.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.8N 88.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.3N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 90.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Graphics

2014-10-19 23:09:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 20:40:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Oct 2014 21:04:44 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 30

2014-10-19 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192039 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014 The combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally taken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted more than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation center, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has wrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo looks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the system has completed its transformation into an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is consistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward the east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next 24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down considerably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low pressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 51.6N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 20/0600Z 53.6N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 20/1800Z 56.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 58.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 64.5N 1.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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