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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-17 22:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172039 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 There has not been any organized deep convection near the center of Vicky in more than 12 hours as very strong vertical wind shear continues to take a toll on the cyclone. Vicky has become a swirl of low clouds and no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, the system is being declared a remnant low and this will be the last NHC advisory on Vicky. The Dvorak CI-number from TAFB suggests that the intensity of the system has fallen to 25 kt, which is the basis for the advisory wind speed. Very strong vertical wind shear associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy is expected to continue to cause the remnant low to weaken, and the system is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure in 24 to 36 hours. The official forecast follows suit and calls for dissipation by early Saturday. Vicky is now moving west-southwestward or 250/10 kt. The remnant low should remain on a west-southwestward heading while it is steered by the low-level northeasterly trade wind flow over the next day or so. The latest NHC track forecast is near the various consensus aids and in the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. This is the last NHC advisory on Vicky. Additional information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 21.1N 39.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z 19.9N 42.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-17 22:38:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 172037 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-17 22:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of Vicky was located near 21.1, -39.1 with movement WSW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-17 22:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 172037 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...VICKY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 39.1W ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 39.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate Friday night or early Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Vicky. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-17 22:36:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 172036 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 39.1W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 39.1W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.9N 42.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 39.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON VICKY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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