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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 44
2020-09-23 10:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230841 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt. Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next 36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia today. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2020-09-23 10:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 230841 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 60 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BURGEO NFLD 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BURGEO NFLD 50 26 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PTX BASQUES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PTX BASQUES 50 71 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) PTX BASQUES 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HALIFAX NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-23 10:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA... ...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of Teddy was located near 44.5, -62.7 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 44
2020-09-23 10:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230840 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY NEARING NOVA SCOTIA... ...CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.5N 62.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 62.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia later today, and then near or over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (94 km/h) were reported at Brier Island along the western coast of Nova Scotia within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-23 10:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020
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