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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-05-09 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 090857 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 Satellite images and scatterometer surface wind data indicate that the low pressure area southwest of Mexico that the NHC has been monitoring for the past few days has acquired sufficient organized deep convection and has developed a well-defined inner-core wind field for the system to be designated as the first tropical depression of the 2021 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season... albeit six days early. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 30-kt surface winds noted in 0359 UTC and 0453 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C, respectively, scatterometer satellite data. There were some 35-kt wind vectors present east of the center, but those appeared to be rain-contaminated at that time. The 30-kt initial intensity is also supported by a 0600 UTC TAFB satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt using a curved-band feature. The initial motion estimate is 325/04 kt. For the next day or two, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak subtropical ridge that extends westward from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico across central Mexico to just north of the system. The ridge is expected to build steadily westward over the next few days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward on Tuesday and then moving west-southwestward on Wednesday and Thursday. The HHC track forecast follows the overall trend of the consensus models TVCE and HCCA, but lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope in anticipation of the system weakening and becoming a shallow cyclone by early Tuesday, after which it should be steered more by the low-level easterly to northeasterly trade-wind flow Recent satellite trends suggest that the depression currently is not far from tropical storm status, and SHIPS intensity data indicate that the deep-layer shear is favorable for some additional strengthening. However, shear analyses from UW-CIMSS reveal that moderate southwesterly to westerly mid-level shear is currently displacing the convection to the northeast and east of the low-level center, and this unfavorable pattern is expected to hinder overall development. As a result, the cyclone is only forecast to become a low-end tropical storm before significant deep-layer shear begins to adversely affect the system by late Monday. During the period Tuesday through Thursday, very hostile wind shear in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures cooling to near 26-deg C beneath the cyclone should result in the system degenerating into a remnant low, with dissipation expected by early Friday, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly higher than the consensus models IVCN and HCCA for the next 24 hours, and then closely follows those models thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.8N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.3N 108.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 16.2N 110.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 16.2N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
2021-05-09 10:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 08:35:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 May 2021 09:22:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012021)
2021-05-09 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FIRST 2021 EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Sun May 9 the center of One-E was located near 13.8, -107.7 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-05-09 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012021 300 AM MDT Sun May 09 2021 ...FIRST 2021 EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 107.7W ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 107.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. The cyclone is forecast to turn westward on Tuesday, and move west-southwestward on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and the system could become a tropical storm later today. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Monday, with the system becoming a remnant on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-05-09 10:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090833 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012021 0900 UTC SUN MAY 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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