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Hurricane Alvin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-06-28 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 280232 TCDEP1 Hurricane Alvin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 Somewhat surprisingly, Alvin has strengthened into a hurricane this evening. The diminutive system is exhibiting a rather symmetric CDO with very deep convection bursting near the center. Microwave images show a small eye about 10 n mi in diameter. Subjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB, along with objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, support a current intensity of 65 kt. Alvin is not expected to maintain its intensity for very long. Within 12 to 24 hours, the cyclone should encounter significantly stronger southwesterly shear and SSTs below 24 deg C. These hostile environmental factors should bring about rapid weakening, as supported by essentially all of the numerical guidance. Alvin is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday. The hurricane is moving a little to the right and slightly faster than previous estimates, with an initial motion of about 305/14 kt. Alvin should continue to move near the western periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours, with the weakening cyclone gradually turning toward the left and decelerating. The official track forecast is very close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.4N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Alvin (EP1/EP012019)
2019-06-28 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ALVIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2019 EAST PACIFIC SEASON... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 the center of Alvin was located near 17.4, -115.4 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Alvin Public Advisory Number 10
2019-06-28 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 280231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Alvin Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012019 800 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2019 ...ALVIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2019 EAST PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 115.4W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Alvin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 115.4 West. Alvin is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. A weakening trend is expected to begin by early Friday. Alvin is forecast to become a remnant low on Saturday and should dissipate soon thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Alvin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-06-28 04:31:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 280231 PWSEP1 HURRICANE ALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0300 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 22(22) 20(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Alvin Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-06-28 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 280231 TCMEP1 HURRICANE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019 0300 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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