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Tropical Storm Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

2020-07-24 16:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 241457 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 34 18 41(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 12(12) 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 20(20) 16(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 16(16) 36(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 8( 8) 46(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 54(55) 10(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 19(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Summary for Tropical Storm Hanna (AT3/AL082020)

2020-07-24 16:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE HANNA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 the center of Hanna was located near 27.2, -93.2 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-07-24 16:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241456 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.4N 96.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 100.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 93.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Hanna Public Advisory Number 7

2020-07-24 16:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241456 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hanna Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE HANNA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 93.2W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM E OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from San Luis Pass to High Island Texas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 93.2 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion should continue today. A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a westward to west-southwestward motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected until the tropical cyclone makes landfall. Steady weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. During the past few hours, a ship located east of the center reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h). Reports from the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight or Saturday morning. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches through Sunday night in south Texas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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