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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-25 16:58:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251458 TCDAT3 Hurricane Hanna Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 NOAA Doppler radar data from Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas, along with reconnaissance data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Hanna has continued to strengthen this morning. A well-defined but fairly large 30-35-nmi-wide eye has formed and recent dropsonde data from the eye indicate that the central pressure has dropped to 978 mb. The aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 77 kt, which equates to about 69 kt at the surface. During the past hour, Doppler velocities have sharply increased with numerous patches of 85-90 kt between 7000-8000 ft common in the northern eyewall. Although these values would typically correspond to surface winds of about 75 kt, the Doppler velocity are occurring in low reflectivity regions of 25-30 dBZ, so the full effect of those winds are likely not reaching the surface. This could be why the highest SFMR surface wind observed by the aircraft was only 63 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt, which is a blend of the aircraft flight-level, radar, and SFMR surface wind speed estimates. The center position is a tad north of the recon fixes due to some southward tilt of the eye caused by northerly shear. This has resulted in a slower westward motion of 270/06 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane has been slowly building westward and southwestward based on upper-air data over the past 24 hours. This slow ridging pattern is expected to continue for the next 48 hours, resulting in Hanna gradually turning toward the west-southwest by late this afternoon or evening, with landfall occurring in about 12 h along south Texas coast. After landfall, Hanna should continue its west-southwestward motion until dissipation over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico in 48-60 h. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus model guidance. Although the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain out of the north-northwest to north at about 20 kt, the relatively large and stable eye, along with the expected convective vigor of the hurricane, could result in a little more strengthening just before landfall occurs. After landfall, rapid weakening of the wind field is expected. However, the weakening peak winds will have no negative effect on the likelihood for heavy rainfall or the possibility of isolated tornadoes developing. Key Messages 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area this morning. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 27.1N 96.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.9N 97.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1200Z 26.4N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0000Z 25.9N 100.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1200Z 25.3N 102.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Hanna Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-07-25 16:47:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 25 Jul 2020 14:47:15 GMT
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Hurricane Hanna Public Advisory Number 11
2020-07-25 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 251442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Hanna Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 ...HANNA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AS IT CRAWLS CLOSER TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST... ...GUSTY SQUALLS OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 96.3W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Sargent, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra el Mezquital Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * Mesquite Bay to Sargent Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coasts should monitor the progress of Hanna. Interests in northeastern Mexico should also monitor the progress of this hurricane. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Hanna was located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 96.3 West. Hanna is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion should continue through this morning. A gradual turn toward the west-southwest is expected by late afternoon and tonight, and that motion should continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should make landfall along the Texas coast within the hurricane warning area by late afternoon or early this evening. Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible before Hanna makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). Reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay including Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, and Aransas Bay...3-5 ft Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay...2-4 ft Mesquite Bay to Sargent including San Antonio Bay and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...1-3 ft North of Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the warning area and will spread inland through the afternoon and evening. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches through Sunday night in south Texas and into the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and overnight over parts of the lower to middle Texas coastal plain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Hanna Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-07-25 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 251442 PWSAT3 HURRICANE HANNA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HANNA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GALVESTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKPORT TX 34 44 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ROCKPORT TX 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 72 6(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MCALLEN TX 34 45 42(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MCALLEN TX 50 4 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MCALLEN TX 64 4 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARLINGEN TX 34 67 21(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HARLINGEN TX 50 11 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HARLINGEN TX 64 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 40 16(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCA MX 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-25 16:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF SARGENT TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.9N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.4N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.9N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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