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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-23 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 958 FONT11 KNHC 230235 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-23 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 522 WTNT21 KNHC 230234 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 54.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 54.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 54.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.2N 55.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.6W MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 54.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2018-09-22 22:38:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 20:38:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Sep 2018 21:21:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-22 22:37:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 490 WTNT41 KNHC 222037 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018 Since the last advisory was issued, deep convection decreased in association with the depression to the point that it was not classifiable with the Dvorak technique at 18Z. However, there are a couple of patches of thunderstorms that have developed recently, and if they persist they could help the system hold on to tropical cyclone status a bit longer. The low-level center remains exposed with UW-CIMSS now analyzing nearly 45 kt of westerly shear over the cyclone. Gradual spin down is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by Sunday. Global model fields show the surface circulation dissipating by 36 hours and that is indicated in the official forecast. The low-level center has been moving erratically today, with a recent northward jog seen, but the long-term initial motion estimate is 305/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered west- northwestward by a weak low-level ridge through dissipation, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged northward toward the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.6N 53.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 13.9N 54.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 56.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-22 22:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 337 FONT11 KNHC 222036 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 22 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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