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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-12 10:48:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 120848 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 0900 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 42.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 42.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.6N 44.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.2N 47.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.1N 52.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 20.1N 61.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.9N 65.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-12 04:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 913 WTNT41 KNHC 120233 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone. While this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than any strengthening. This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 kt. By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding mid-level dry air from mixing near the center. Gradually warming SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further intensification through about 2-3 days. Thereafter, increasing southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5 as it traverses the hostile environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA corrected-consensus mean. The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of the model consensus. The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 12.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-12 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:33:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Aug 2020 03:24:56 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-12 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 11 the center of Eleven was located near 12.0, -41.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-12 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 120232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 41.5W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 41.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is forecast to begin Wednesday night and continue through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Wednesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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