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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112021)
2021-08-29 04:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 28 the center of Eleven was located near 33.0, -49.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-29 04:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 981 WTNT31 KNHC 290247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 49.7W ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 49.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected through Sunday, and the depression is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later tonight or tomorrow. The system is then forecast to become extratropical by Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-29 04:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 460 WTNT21 KNHC 290247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 49.7W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 50.1W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.6N 47.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.8N 43.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.5N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 43.4N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 47.9N 36.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 49.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics
2020-08-13 10:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 08:40:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 09:24:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-13 10:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 130839 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 13 2020 Proxy-visible GOES-16 satellite imagery and data from an earlier scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center of the depression is displaced to the south of the main area of deep convection. Recently, however, some new convection is forming closer to the estimated center which suggests some re-organization of the system may be taking place. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are only 1.0, but the current intensity estimates from these agencies still support 30 kt. Since the shear is not expected to increase significantly for the next day or so, strengthening is still forecast in the short term. Beginning around 2-3 days, southwesterly shear associated with a large upper-level trough over the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to weaken. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus. The latest center fixes show that the cyclone is moving west-northwestward, or around 285/13 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. The system should continue to move west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge into the weekend. By day 3 a turn toward the northwest is likely in response to weakness in the ridge followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as the cyclone moves through this weakness late in the period. The official track forecast is close to the latest NOAA corrected model consensus, or HCCA, prediction and not much different from the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.9N 47.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 13.8N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.2N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.6N 57.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 18.8N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.0N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 26.0N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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