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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-12 16:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 121442 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is a little better organized than 24 h ago, with a ragged central convective feature and a curved convective band in the northwestern semicircle. However, recent scatterometer data show this has not yet resulted in strengthening, with 25-30 kt winds occuring to the north of the center. Based on the scatterometer, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion remains a little north of due west, or 280/13 kt. There is little change to the forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the last advisory. A westward motion is expected to continue through tonight due to easterly flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the cyclone. After that, the global models forecast a slight weakness to develop within the ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, with that motion continuing through the end of the forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just to the left of the various consensus models. The southeasterly shear that has so far prevented intensification should diminish in the next 12 h or so, which should allow the cyclone to become a tropical storm. The system should then remain in light to moderate shear through about 48 h, and the intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 50 kt during that time. Later in the forecast period, moderate to strong southwesterly shear should develop over the cyclone due to an upper-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic. This shear should cause the system to weaken, and several of the global models forecast it to degenerate to a tropical wave before 120 h. The new intensity forecast will not call for that quick of a demise, but will show weakening due to the shear after 72 h. The new forecast, which has only minor changes from the previous forecast, is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 12.4N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)
2020-08-12 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 12 the center of Eleven was located near 12.4, -44.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 4
2020-08-12 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 121442 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 44.2W ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 44.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-12 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 121442 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 44.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 44.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.8N 46.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.2N 58.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 20.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-08-12 16:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 121442 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 1500 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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