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Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-08-12 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 122042 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112020)

2020-08-12 22:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 12 the center of Eleven was located near 12.7, -45.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 5

2020-08-12 22:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 122041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112020 500 PM AST Wed Aug 12 2020 ...DEPRESSION NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 45.7W ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 45.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest at a similar forward speed is expected tonight, with this motion continuing through the rest of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-08-12 22:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 122041 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112020 2100 UTC WED AUG 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 45.7W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 45.7W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.0N 49.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.2N 52.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.8N 57.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 19.1N 59.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 21.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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